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BMI unpacks key mining, metal trends forecast for 2024

by | Jan 30, 2024 | News

BMI expects a mixed outlook for metals and mining in 2024, with some metals like tin, aluminum, copper, lead, and steel performing well, while others like nickel and zinc face challenges due to excess supply. This mixed outlook is largely driven by China’s slowing economic growth, which is expected to be 4.7% in 2024, down from 5.2% this year.

Despite the slowdown, BMI remains positive on several metals. They believe that a decline in the dollar’s strength in the second half of 2024 will boost copper, aluminum, and tin prices. Additionally, a turnaround in the Chinese property sector could support iron ore prices.

Critical minerals are also a key focus for BMI. They expect growing concerns about resource security to drive policies aimed at developing stable and reliable supply chains. This is because the mining and processing of critical metals is currently highly concentrated in a few countries, which poses risks to global supply.

M&A activity is another trend to watch in 2024. BMI expects consolidation to continue in the metals and mining sector, driven by the need to bridge the gap in critical mineral supply. They also note that ESG (environmental, social, and governance) scores will remain a top concern for companies, as investors increasingly prioritize sustainability.

Finally, BMI sees deep-sea mining gaining traction in 2024. With the ongoing discussion around seabed mining regulation nearing a resolution, the first commercial permit for deep-sea mining could be granted this year.

Overall, BMI’s forecast for the metals and mining sector in 2024 is mixed, with some bright spots and some challenges. However, they believe that long-term trends like the growing demand for critical minerals and the focus on sustainability will continue to drive the industry forward.

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